In February, Marin County buyers absorbed 115 homes in consummated contracts – 20% ahead of last year – while sellers completed deals on 102 dwellings – 19% ahead of a year earlier.
As 2025 continues to unfold, shoppers throughout the North Bay have reignited the home-buying process and will continue assessing current offerings, as well as new ones, to determine whether to purchase now. This will show up in a common market measure: the absorption rate.
The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the total number of homes sold in a month by the total number of homes available for sale at the end of the same month. A high absorption rate – 20 percent and above – indicates that the supply of available homes will shrink, thereby increasing the odds that an owner will sell a property in a shorter period at a higher price. Conversely, an absorption rate below 15 percent is indicative of a buyer’s market, meaning homes are selling more slowly at a lower price.
According to February sales data from BAREIS MLS, the Sonoma and Marin county markets are picking up steam, while Napa County’s market remains balanced.
Sonoma County buyers successfully entered agreements to purchase 249 single-family homes in February – 2% ahead of last year at this time. Property owners delivered 235 new offerings during the month – 28% fewer than a year earlier, along with being another new historical low for the period. But buyers managed to complete purchases on 224 dwellings – 12% ahead of the 200 units that transferred ownership just a year earlier.
Now, on the edge of our spring market arrival, buyers will be surveying the 674 available homes remaining in Sonoma County – a welcome 60% bounce above the 30-plus year low in inventory that we experienced last year at this time. February’s activity left us once again with an elevated absorption rate of 33% countywide, meaning that unless a robust amount of new inventory shows up without buyers jumping on it, prices should experience an uptick as our year pushes forward.
Marin property owners introduced 90 new single-family offerings in February – another all-time monthly low and 48% less than a year earlier. These very weak new delivery numbers will continue to compound the challenges for buyers in Marin County and will continue to create a more competitive environment for both new and existing buyers in pursuit of making Marin their home.
Marin buyers absorbed 115 homes in consummated contracts – 20% ahead of last year – while sellers completed deals on 102 dwellings during the period – 19% ahead of a year earlier, leaving Marin with 235 dwellings available for buyers to peruse this March. Marin’s absorption rate for the month steadied once again at 43%, which is indicative of the sellers’ market the region has been in since 2011.
Napa County continues to lag the demands seen in both Sonoma and Marin, and this month once again is a market in balance – where it spent half of last year. February brought the release of 90 new offerings to the Napa marketplace – 10% less than last year – leaving 309 homes available for buyers to peruse at the outset of March. Buyers placed 61 new deals into escrow – 9% more than in 2024 – while closed transactions tipped the scales at 50 during the period – 6% fewer than last year. As of February, the absorption rate stood at 16%, about as balanced as it gets.
Jeff Schween, a “top 1% Realtor at Compass,” provides market insights for The Press Democrat in this weekly column. You can reach him through his website at SantaRosaFineHomes.com.